Introduction
Uttar Pradesh, India’s most politically significant state, sends 80 Members of Parliament to the Lok Sabha. Tuesday witnessed a fierce battle between the ruling NDA and the opposition India Bloc (comprising the Samajwadi Party and Congress). The UP election results have shaken the political landscape, indicating significant shifts in the state’s power dynamics.
Although Prime Minister Narendra Modi won the Varanasi Lok Sabha seat for the third time, his National Democratic Alliance (NDA) faced surprising results in UP. The state, which had been a stronghold for the BJP in the past two general elections, now appears slipping from their grasp.
Result Details
According to the Election Commission’s figures, the BJP secured 33 seats, while its allies managed to win three more seats. Particularly, the National Lok Dal (RLD) won in two constituencies, and its ally Apna Dal (Sonelal) secured one seat. In contrast, the India Bloc made a remarkable comeback by winning 43 seats. The Samajwadi Party, led by Akhilesh Yadav, won 37 seats, while the Congress won in six Lok Sabha constituencies. Additionally, Chandrashekhar of the Azad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram) won from the Nagina constituency.
Compared to the last Lok Sabha elections in 2019, where it won 62 out of 80 seats, the BJP appeared significantly weaker this time. The party formed alliances with its old ally Apna Dal (Sonelal) and included the RLDF of Jayant Chaudhary and the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party of OP Rajbhar in the NDA fold. However, these alliances were not sufficient to maintain their dominance.
A major change from 2019
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP alone won 62 seats in Uttar Pradesh, while at that time the BSP and Samajwadi Party coalition won ten and five seats respectively. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the BJP, formed the largest coalition in the Lok Sabha elections, crossing the mark of majority with 272 seats. However, despite this, the BJP could not achieve its ambitious goal of 370 seats independently and 400 seats with its allies.
In the current scenario, according to the Election Commission of India (ECI), the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has won 240 seats nationwide, placing it significantly ahead of the Congress, which has won 99 seats. However, this figure for the BJP indicates a decline of 63 seats compared to its performance in 2019. In contrast, the Congress has shown a significant increase, winning 55 and 47 more seats respectively in comparison to 2014 and 2019.
Foreign media reaction
International media has reacted strongly to the UP election results. The Washington Post noted, “The popular Prime Minister has never failed to secure a majority in state or national elections in his 23-year political career. But now Modi is facing a political setback.” The sentiment was echoed by The New York Times, stating, “The aura of invincibility around Narendra Modi has been shattered… Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party suffered a setback on Tuesday, losing its parliamentary seat in Ayodhya.”
Pakistan-based media portal Dawn described the results with the headline “India’s vote count shows Modi coalition narrowly winning,” while Al Jazeera reported that the new parliament will pose challenges for Modi, necessitating compromises. The Financial Times suggested that the results indicate a return to coalition politics, while the BBC highlighted both achievements and criticisms of Modi’s tenure
Several factors contributed to the decline of the BJP in UP:
Undermining Yogi’s narrative
The notion of replacing Yogi Adityanath with the Modi-Shah duo as the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh played a significant role in adversely affecting the BJP’s fortunes. Yogi Adityanath had earned his reputation as an honest administrator for his efforts to improve law and order in the state. However, sidelining him allegedly did not sit well with many voters.
Issues with ticket distribution
Despite opposition from local people and RSS cadres, BJP’s decision to impose its candidates also caused significant damage. This was particularly noticeable in 10-15 seats. The India Alliance’s strategy of giving more tickets to non-Yadav OBCs (such as Kushwaha, Maurya, Saini, and Shakya) within the Rajput community in western UP resulted in substantial losses for the BJP in the state. The decision to field many existing MPs (47 out of 62) also stirred significant anti-incumbency sentiments.
Moving beyond divisive campaigns
The BJP’s campaign focused more on rhetoric than developmental issues. Controversial statements, such as accusing Congress of attempting to convert several child-bearing individuals by offering wealth redistribution in Modi’s campaign, contributed to divisive narratives that alienated a segment of voters who had hoped for a focus on the government’s achievements in the past decade.
Is Modi’s magic fading?
This election differed from the 2014 and 2019 campaigns, where PM Modi’s appeal was a major attraction. The current campaign indicated a lack of enthusiasm, signaling a change. Direct competition between the BJP and the India Alliance was witnessed on most seats as BSP was sidelined. Local and caste factors played a crucial role, while the BJP relied solely on the ‘guarantee of Modi‘ slogan.
Conclusion
The UP election results are a warning for the BJP. It underscores the need for the party to reconsider its strategies and address concerns of its voter base. Despite maintaining a significant presence, the demand for inclusive and developmental agendas becomes evident with diminishing majorities. The revival of the India Bloc hints at a vibrant democratic process, where electoral fortunes can dramatically shift, illustrating the dynamic nature of Indian politics. These results not only reshape the political landscape of Uttar Pradesh but also set the tone for future electoral battles in India. As parties analyze the outcomes and craft strategies for upcoming elections, the lessons learned from UP will undoubtedly play a crucial role in shaping their perspectives.
Also Read: Election Result 2024 Gujarat: A New Political Landscape Emerges
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