NVIDIA Stock in 2025: Split Dynamics, Price Volatility, and Long-Term Growth Prospects

NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) continues to dominate headlines as a linchpin of the AI revolution, with its stock navigating a complex landscape of geopolitical risks, earnings catalysts, and transformative technological advancements. NVIDIA Stock in 2025 As the NVDA stock price today hovers around $131.29, investors are weighing the implications of its 2024 stock split, upcoming earnings report, and long-term growth potential. This 1,500+ word analysis unpacks NVIDIA’s strategic position, evaluates the likelihood of another stock split, and explores the forces shaping its trajectory in 2025 and beyond.

1. NVDA Stock Split History: A Legacy of Accessibility

NVIDIA has a storied history of stock splits, with its most recent 10-for-1 split in June 2024 marking the sixth such event since its 1999 IPO. This split reduced shares from ~$1,200 to $120, democratizing ownership for retail investors and enhancing liquidity 28. Historically, splits have followed parabolic rallies, such as the 2021 4-for-1 split during the tech boom, and have often correlated with short-term price surges. For instance, shares rallied 28% in the six months post-2024 split but faced a 40% correction in April 2025 amid macroeconomic turbulence

Why Another Split Is Unlikely in 2025

• Affordable Pricing: At ~$131.29, shares remain accessible to retail investors, negating the need for structural changes

• Strategic Focus: NVIDIA prioritizes Blackwell GPU production and sovereign AI partnerships over stock engineering

• Regulatory Caution: SEC guidelines discourage splits for “hype-driven volatility”

Analysts like Alyssa Nance argue another split is improbable unless shares approach $1,000 pre-split levels—a scenario deemed unlikely given NVIDIA’s $3.2 trillion market cap

2. NVDA Stock Price Today: Geopolitical Risks and Market Volatility

As of May 25, 2025, NVDA stock price stands at $131.29, reflecting a 1.16% dip from the previous close. The stock has traded between $86.62 and $153.13 over the past year, showcasing extreme volatility driven by:

• U.S.-China Trade Tensions: Export restrictions cost NVIDIA $15 billion in lost China sales, with Huawei’s Ascend 910B chips dominating the local market

• Tariff Pressures: Duties on Chinese imports fluctuated between 30% and 145%, prompting NVIDIA to raise GPU prices by 15% to offset costs

• Earnings Speculation: Options traders predict a 7.4% swing post-Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings on May 28, with revenue projected at $43 billion (up 65% YoY)

For real-time updates on NVDA stock price trends, platforms like Yahoo Finance remain critical, while Taza News offers in-depth geopolitical analysis

3. Financial Performance: Record Revenue and Margin Resilience

NVIDIA’s fiscal 2025 results underscore its dominance in AI and data centers:

• Q4 FY2025 Revenue: $39.3 billion, up 78% YoY, driven by record data center revenue of $35.6 billion (up 93% YoY)

• Full-Year Revenue: $130.5 billion, up 114%, with non-GAAP gross margins at 75.5%

• Q1 FY2026 Outlook: Revenue projected at $43 billion (±2%), with AI demand offsetting tariff impacts

CEO Jensen Huang emphasized the “amazing demand” for Blackwell GPUs, which powered a $500 billion partnership with Saudi Arabia’s Stargate Project

4. Growth Catalysts: AI Factories and Sovereign AI

NVIDIA’s long-term value hinges on diversifying beyond hardware into global AI ecosystems:

a. Sovereign AI Infrastructure

• Global Collaborations: Partnerships with Japan ($740M investment), France’s Scaleway, and Saudi Arabia’s $500 billion Stargate Project position NVIDIA as a geopolitical force in sovereign AI infrastructure. Sovereign AI revenue could approach $10 billion in 2025

b. Data Center Dominance

• Market Leadership: NVIDIA holds ~90% of the data center GPU market, driven by Hopper and Blackwell architectures. Cloud providers like AWS and Azure are deploying Blackwell GPUs to convert $1 trillion in traditional data centers into AI hubs

c. Automotive and Robotics

• DRIVE Thor Platform: Powers next-gen EVs from Toyota and Hyundai, targeting a $200 billion autonomous vehicle market

• Project GR00T: A foundation model for humanoid robots, accelerating adoption in healthcare and logistics

5. Risks: Valuation, Competition, and Market Saturation

a. Overvaluation Concerns

• Forward P/E: 30.49x (vs. 5-year average of 59.3x) suggests vulnerability to earnings misses

• Morningstar’s Fair Value: $125, implying slight overvaluation at current levels

b. Rising Competition

• AMD’s MI325X: Competes with NVIDIA’s H200 in AI workloads, while Intel’s Gaudi 3 threatens data center margins

c. Geopolitical Flashpoints

• China Exposure: 25% of revenue is tied to China, where export curbs threaten growth NVIDIA Stock in 2025

6. NVDA Stock Forecast: Bull vs. Bear Scenarios

Analysts diverge sharply on NVIDIA’s trajectory:

For nuanced analysis, Taza News provides real-time updates on NVDA stock price trends and geopolitical impacts

7. Investor Strategies: Balancing Risk and Reward

a. Short-Term Traders

• Earnings Play: Straddle options to capitalize on the expected 7.4% post-May 28 swing

• Technical Levels: Support at $114.44 (50-day SMA); resistance at $153.13 (ATH)

b. Long-Term Investors

• Dollar-Cost Averaging: Accumulate shares below $130 to leverage AI’s secular growth

• Sector Diversification: Pair NVIDIA with stable dividend stocks (e.g., Procter & Gamble) to offset volatility

Conclusion: NVIDIA’s Crossroads Between Innovation and Geopolitics

NVIDIA Stock in 2025 May 28 earnings report will test its ability to justify a $3.2 trillion valuation amid AI euphoria and geopolitical risks. While the NVDA stock split in 2024 democratized ownership, long-term success hinges on executing its AI factory vision and fending off competitors. Investors should:

1. Monitor China Demand: Blackwell orders from Alibaba and Tencent could surprise

2. Track Margin Resilience: Tariff impacts and pricing power will shape profitability

3. Diversify Portfolios: Hedge against NVDA’s 10.16% volatility with stable assets

For ongoing insights into NVDA stock price today and split analysis, leverage resources like Taza News, your trusted source for actionable market intelligence

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.