NVIDIA Stock in 2025: Analyzing the Potential for Another Split, Price Trends, and Strategic Outlook

NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) remains a cornerstone of the tech sector, captivating investors with its dominance in artificial intelligence (AI), data centers, and gaming. As the NVDA stock price today hovers around $131.29, questions about another stock split, geopolitical risks, and long-term growth prospects dominate discussions. This 1,500+ word analysis dissects NVIDIA’s current position, evaluates the likelihood of a 2025 stock split, and explores the forces shaping its trajectory in an era of AI-driven innovation and global competition.

1. NVDA Stock Split History: Lessons from 2024

NVIDIA’s 10-for-1 stock split in June 2024 marked its sixth split since going public in 1999, reducing shares from ~$1,200 to $120 post-split. The move aimed to democratize ownership, attracting retail investors and improving liquidity. Post-split, shares surged 28% in six months, driven by AI optimism, but faced a 40% correction in April 2025 amid macroeconomic headwinds

Why Another Split Is Unlikely in 2025

• Affordable Pricing: At ~$131.29, shares remain accessible to retail investors, negating the need for structural changes

• Corporate Silence: NVIDIA has not hinted at another split in SEC filings or earnings calls, focusing instead on Blackwell GPU production and AI partnerships

• Regulatory Caution: SEC guidelines discourage splits for “hype-driven volatility,” urging companies to prioritize fundamentals over optics

Historically, splits followed parabolic rallies (e.g., 2021’s 4-for-1 split during the tech boom). Analysts like Alyssa Nance argue another split is unnecessary unless shares approach $1,000 pre-split levels—a scenario deemed improbable given NVIDIA’s $3.2 trillion market cap

2. NVDA Stock Price Today: Geopolitical Risks and Market Volatility

As of May 25, 2025, NVDA stock price stands at $131.29, reflecting a 1.16% dip from the previous close. The stock has traded between $86.62 and $153.13 over the past year, showcasing extreme volatility driven by:

• U.S.-China Trade Tensions: Export restrictions cost NVIDIA $15 billion in lost China sales, with Huawei’s Ascend 910B chips dominating the local market

• Tariff Pressures: Duties on Chinese imports fluctuated between 30% and 145%, prompting NVIDIA to raise GPU prices by 15% to offset costs

• Earnings Speculation: Options traders predict a 7.4% swing post-Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings on May 28, with revenue projected at $43 billion (up 65% YoY)

For real-time updates on NVDA stock price trends, platforms like Yahoo Finance remain critical, while Taza News offers in-depth geopolitical analysis.

3. May 28 Earnings: A Make-or-Break Catalyst

NVIDIA’s Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings report will address three pivotal questions:

a. Blackwell GPU Adoption and Data Center Demand

• Revenue Guidance: NVIDIA projects $43 billion in Q1 revenue, driven by Blackwell platform adoption. Data center revenue, which hit $35.6 billion in Q4 2025 (up 93% YoY), is expected to surpass $40 billion

• Cloud Partnerships: AWS, Microsoft, and Oracle are deploying Blackwell GPUs to convert $1 trillion in traditional data centers into AI hubs

b. China’s Diminishing Role

• Revenue Impact: China now accounts for just 5% of NVIDIA’s sales, down from 25% in 2023, due to export curbs. However, partnerships like Saudi Arabia’s $500 billion Stargate Project offer a geopolitical hedge

c. Margin Resilience

• Gross Margins: Non-GAAP gross margins dipped slightly to 73.5% in Q4 2025 due to tariff costs. Investors will scrutinize whether NVIDIA’s pricing power can sustain profitability

4. Growth Catalysts: AI Factories and Sovereign AI

NVIDIA’s long-term value hinges on diversifying beyond hardware into global AI ecosystems:

a. Sovereign AI Infrastructure

• Global Collaborations: Partnerships with Japan ($740M investment), France’s Scaleway, and Saudi Arabia’s Stargate Project position NVIDIA as a geopolitical force in sovereign AI infrastructure. Sovereign AI revenue could approach $10 billion in 2025

b. Software Monetization

• CUDA Dominance: Used by 95% of AI developers, CUDA creates sticky revenue streams. Software accounts for 18% of total revenue ($24 billion in fiscal 2025)

• NVIDIA NIM: Enterprise-grade AI microservices generate recurring revenue, with adoption by healthcare giants like Mayo Clinic

c. Automotive and Edge Computing

• DRIVE Thor Platform: Powers next-gen EVs from Toyota and Hyundai, targeting a $200 billion autonomous vehicle market

• Edge AI Solutions: RTX 500 GPUs for smart cities and healthcare could unlock $50 billion annually by 2030

5. Risks: Valuation, Competition, and Market Saturation

a. Overvaluation Concerns

• Fair Value Estimate: Morningstar’s $125 fair value suggests shares are 5% overvalued, though the forward P/E of 25.4x remains below the 5-year average of 69.2x 13

b. Rising Competition

• AMD’s MI325X: Competes with NVIDIA’s H200 in AI workloads, while Intel’s Gaudi 3 threatens data center margins

c. AI Adoption Slowdown

• Scaling Law Concerns: DeepSeek’s efficient models and rumors about the “end of scaling laws” could dampen demand for high-end GPUs

6. Analyst Predictions: Bull vs. Bear

For nuanced analysis, Taza News provides real-time updates on NVDA stock price trends and geopolitical impacts.

7. Investor Strategies: Balancing Risk and Reward

a. Short-Term Traders

• Earnings Play: Straddle options to capitalize on the expected 7.4% post-May 28 swing

• Technical Levels: Support at $114.44 (50-day SMA); resistance at $153.13 (ATH)

b. Long-Term Investors

• Dollar-Cost Averaging: Accumulate shares below $130 to leverage AI’s secular growth

• Sector Diversification: Pair NVIDIA with stable dividend stocks (e.g., Procter & Gamble) to offset volatility

Conclusion: NVIDIA’s Crossroads Between Innovation and Geopolitics

NVIDIA’s May 28 earnings report will test its ability to justify a $3.2 trillion valuation amid AI euphoria and geopolitical risks. While the NVDA stock split in 2024 democratized ownership, long-term success hinges on executing its AI factory vision and fending off competitors. Investors should:

1. Monitor China Demand: Blackwell orders from Alibaba and Tencent could surprise

2. Track Margin Resilience: Tariff impacts and pricing power will shape profitability

3. Diversify Portfolios: Hedge against NVDA’s 10.16% volatility with stable assets

For ongoing insights into NVDA stock price today and split analysis, leverage resources like Taza News, your trusted source for actionable market intelligence.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.