NVDA Stock Price: May 28 Earnings Report – Catalyst for Recovery or Reality Check?

NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) has been a rollercoaster for investors in 2025, with its stock swinging from a January high of $153.13 to an April low of $86.62 amid AI hype, geopolitical tensions, and valuation concerns 6. As the company prepares to release its Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings on May 28, 2025, the market is at a crossroads: Will this report reignite NVIDIA’s rally or expose vulnerabilities in its $3.2 trillion valuation? This 1,300+ word analysis dissects the stakes, growth drivers, and risks shaping NVDA stock price today and beyond.

1. The May 28 Catalyst: What to Expect

NVIDIA’s upcoming earnings report is arguably the most consequential event for tech investors in 2025. Here’s why:

Key Metrics Under the Microscope

• Revenue Guidance: NVIDIA projects Q1 revenue of $43 billion (±2%), representing 63–67% YoY growth 10. Analysts will scrutinize whether AI demand justifies this target, especially after Q4 fiscal 2025 data center revenue hit a record $35.6 billion (up 93% YoY)

• Blackwell GPU Adoption: The Blackwell platform, optimized for trillion-parameter AI models, entered full production in Q1 2025. Investors want clarity on orders from cloud providers (AWS, Azure) and sovereign AI projects like Saudi Arabia’s $500 billion Stargate initiative

• Margin Pressures: Despite raising GPU prices by 15% to offset tariff costs, gross margins dipped slightly to 73.5% in Q4 4. May 28 guidance will reveal if pricing power persists amid softer automotive and gaming demand

For real-time updates on NVDA stock price today, platforms like CNBC and TradingView remain essential.

2. Historical Context: From $0.04 to AI Juggernaut

NVIDIA’s journey from a 1999 IPO price of $0.0438 (split-adjusted) to a $3.2 trillion titan is a testament to relentless innovation:

• Early 2000s: GeForce GPUs revolutionized gaming, driving shares from $1.50 to $7.50

• 2010s: CUDA platform adoption in AI research sparked a 1,200% surge

• 2020s: ChatGPT’s 2022 debut and Blackwell GPUs cemented NVIDIA as the “AI Arms Dealer”

Volatility Lessons

• 2022 Tech Crash: Shares dropped 54% as interest rates rose

• 2025 Correction: A 40% plunge from January highs due to tariff fears and DeepSeek’s low-cost AI competition 10.

Despite turbulence, a $1,000 investment in 1999 would now be worth ~$2.3 million

3. Growth Drivers: Beyond Hype

NVIDIA’s long-term value hinges on five pillars:

a. AI Factories and Accelerated Computing

CEO Jensen Huang’s vision of “AI factories” — data centers optimized for generative AI — is materializing. Partnerships with AWS, Microsoft, and Oracle aim to convert $1 trillion in traditional data centers into AI hubs, with Blackwell GPUs at the core

b. Autonomous Vehicles and Robotics

The DRIVE Thor platform, powered by Blackwell architecture, is adopted by Toyota, Hyundai, and Lucid for next-gen EVs. NVIDIA’s Project GR00T for humanoid robots could tap a $200 billion market by 2030

c. Edge AI Expansion

NVIDIA’s RTX 500 GPU for industrial IoT and healthcare applications is gaining traction. UBS projects edge computing could generate $50 billion annually by 2030

d. Software Monetization

The NVIDIA AI Enterprise 5.0 suite, including NIM inference microservices, unlocks recurring revenue from enterprises deploying AI on CUDA-powered systems

e. Semiconductor Leadership

TSMC and Synopsys adopted NVIDIA’s cuLitho for computational lithography, streamlining chip manufacturing. This cements NVIDIA’s role in the $1 trillion semiconductor industry

4. Risks: The Bear Case

Even bulls acknowledge NVIDIA’s challenges:

a. Valuation Concerns

• Forward P/E: 25.4x (below the 5-year average of 69.2x) suggests undervaluation, but Morningstar’s $125 fair value estimate implies 6% downside risk

• Revenue Reliance: 75% of revenue comes from data centers, exposing NVIDIA to AI spending cycles

b. Geopolitical Flashpoints

• China Exposure: 25% of revenue is tied to China, where Huawei’s Ascend 910B and export curbs threaten market share

• Tariff Volatility: U.S.-China tariffs dropped from 145% to 30% in May 2025, but tensions remain fragile

c. Rising Competition

• AMD’s MI325X: Rivals NVIDIA’s H200 in AI workloads

• DeepSeek’s AI Models: Undercut NVIDIA’s pricing with low-cost alternatives

5. Analyst Predictions: Bull vs. Bear

Wall Street is deeply divided on NVIDIA’s trajectory:

For nuanced analysis, Taza News provides real-time updates on NVDA stock price trends and geopolitical impacts.

6. Investor Strategies for May 28

a. Short-Term Traders

• Options Play: Capitalize on the expected 7.4% post-earnings swing with straddle options

• Technical Signals: The 50-day SMA ($114.44) and RSI (70.64) suggest resistance at $144.25

b. Long-Term Investors

• Dollar-Cost Averaging: Accumulate shares below $130 to mitigate volatility

• Sector Diversification: Pair NVIDIA with stable dividend stocks (e.g., Procter & Gamble)

c. Risk-Adjusted Entry Points

• Entry Below $120: Aligns with Morningstar’s fair value estimate

• Exit Above $150: Profit-taking zone ahead of potential corrections

Conclusion: NVIDIA’s Make-or-Break Moment

The May 28 earnings report will test NVIDIA’s ability to justify its $3.2 trillion valuation. While the NVDA stock split in 2024 democratized ownership, long-term success hinges on executing its AI factory vision and fending off competitors. Investors should:

1. Monitor China Demand: Blackwell orders from Alibaba and Tencent could surprise

2. Track Margin Resilience: Tariff impacts and pricing power will shape profitability

3. Diversify Portfolios: Hedge against NVDA’s 10.16% volatility with stable assets

For ongoing insights into NVDA stock price today and split analysis, leverage resources like Taza News, your trusted source for market intelligence.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.