Ever felt like you’re watching a stock but unsure if it’s the right time to jump in? Well, NTPC share price has been making headlines after its Q4 FY2025 results—and investors are split on what’s next. With numbers that were mostly in-line with expectations, it’s time we break it all down for you. Should you buy, sell, or just hold on tight? Let’s decode it in plain, simple language.
NTPC’s Q4 Performance: Not Spectacular, But Steady
NTPC Ltd., India’s largest power utility, delivered a 4% year-on-year (YoY) rise in consolidated net profit, hitting ₹5,778 crore for the March quarter. Compare that to ₹5,556.4 crore last year—it’s a modest climb, but a climb nonetheless.
Revenue from operations also saw a 3.2% increase YoY, coming in at ₹43,903.7 crore. However, EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) was slightly lower, down 1% to ₹11,255 crore. That drop, while small, led to an operating margin contraction to 25.6% from 26.7%.
Capex Is Climbing: Is It a Good Sign?
One of the most talked-about figures was NTPC’s capital expenditure (capex). On a standalone basis, capex shot up to ₹22,965 crore, compared to ₹19,444 crore a year ago. Even more impressive, total group capex reached ₹44,636 crore for FY25—up significantly from ₹35,385 crore in FY24.
A big part of that growth came from NTPC Green Energy, which invested ₹12,914 crore, a sharp rise from ₹8,996 crore the previous year. That means NTPC is clearly putting its money where its mouth is—pushing towards a greener and more robust future.
Market Reaction: NTPC Share Price Edges Higher
Following the results, NTPC share price climbed up by 0.9% to ₹347.65 on the NSE in early trade on May 26. Not a huge leap, but enough to get investors talking.
Jefferies Sees Upside: Price Target ₹490
Global brokerage firm Jefferies is bullish. They maintained their ‘Buy’ rating, setting a target of ₹490 per share. What’s their logic? For starters, they found NTPC’s EBITDA stronger than expected, particularly driven by NTPC Green Energy’s 90% margin.
They also noted a significant improvement in under-recovery of fixed costs—down to ₹460 crore from ₹780 crore in FY24. Jefferies believes the ongoing capacity ramp-up and medium-term double-digit EPS CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) are strong reasons for a potential re-rating of the stock.
Nuvama Institutional Equities: Still a Top Pick
Another fan of NTPC is Nuvama Institutional Equities. They’ve kept NTPC as their top pick in the power utilities space, largely because of its inexpensive valuation and future capex potential.
However, they’ve slightly trimmed their target price—from ₹412 to ₹404 per share. Why the cut? Well, while they expect around 7% EPS CAGR between FY25 and FY27, they also see rising incentives from the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) as a potential kicker.
Motilal Oswal: Neutral With Caution Flags
Not everyone’s as excited. Motilal Oswal took a neutral stance, and they’ve got a few reasons why.
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Sluggish Capacity Expansion: Both standalone and consolidated growth (excluding NTPC Green Energy) are expected to be slow over FY25–27.
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Execution Issues at NGEL: NTPC Green Energy Ltd. (NGEL) commissioned only 1.9GW this year, far below its 3GW guidance.
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Dividend Yield Lags Peers: Projected FY27 dividend yield is 2.7%—not terrible, but behind Power Grid’s 3.4%.
So while Motilal isn’t recommending a sell, they’re not giving it a ringing endorsement either.
NTPC Green Energy: The Renewable Powerhouse
One of the shining stars in NTPC’s portfolio is clearly NTPC Green Energy. With margins at 90% and substantial capex investment, it’s no surprise that this division is being closely watched.
However, challenges in execution and meeting installation targets mean there’s still work to be done. NGEL was supposed to hit 3GW this year, but only managed 1.9GW—well short of its own promises.
Valuation Talk: Is NTPC Undervalued or Just Right?
Let’s talk numbers. At its current NTPC share price of ₹347.65, is it a bargain or a trap?
Many analysts argue that the stock is undervalued considering its growth potential, capex plans, and dominance in the power sector. But execution hiccups, modest dividend yield, and margin pressures are not to be ignored.
Key Takeaways for Investors
Here’s a quick checklist to help you decide your next move:
✅ Solid Q4 numbers with a growing bottom line
✅ Aggressive capex plans, especially in renewables
✅ Positive broker sentiment (Jefferies, Nuvama)
⚠️ Sluggish capacity additions (excluding NGEL)
⚠️ Execution challenges for NGEL
⚠️ Lower dividend yield compared to peers
Buy, Sell, or Hold? Final Verdict
Still confused about what to do? Here’s the bottom line:
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Buy if you’re in for the long haul and believe in India’s renewable push and NTPC’s ambitious growth plans.
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Hold if you already own the stock and want to wait for clearer signals or better entry/exit points.
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Sell only if you’re looking for higher dividend yields or faster growth from your energy investments.
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Conclusion
NTPC is like a dependable old engine—still strong, still reliable, but not exactly racing ahead. Its steady profit growth, increased capex, and focus on renewables give it long-term promise. But short-term challenges and underwhelming returns might make you think twice.
So, what’s your move? Whether you decide to buy, hold, or sell, make sure it aligns with your investment goals and risk appetite.
